Praj Industries Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

PRAJIND Stock   810.15  9.85  1.20%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Praj Industries Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 809.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,065. Praj Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Praj Industries stock prices and determine the direction of Praj Industries Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Praj Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Praj Industries' Other Current Liabilities is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Total Current Liabilities is expected to grow to about 15.3 B, whereas Cash is forecasted to decline to about 965.7 M.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Praj Industries works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Praj Industries Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Praj Industries Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 809.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.06, mean absolute percentage error of 611.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,065.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Praj Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Praj Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Praj Industries Stock Forecast Pattern

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Praj Industries Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Praj Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Praj Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 806.67 and 812.54, respectively. We have considered Praj Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
810.15
806.67
Downside
809.60
Expected Value
812.54
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Praj Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Praj Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 3.109
MADMean absolute deviation18.0559
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0236
SAESum of the absolute errors1065.2955
When Praj Industries Limited prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Praj Industries Limited trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Praj Industries observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Praj Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Praj Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
802.86805.78891.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
620.90623.82891.17
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.570.760.95
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Praj Industries

For every potential investor in Praj, whether a beginner or expert, Praj Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Praj Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Praj. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Praj Industries' price trends.

Praj Industries Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Praj Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Praj Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Praj Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Praj Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Praj Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Praj Industries' current price.

Praj Industries Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Praj Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Praj Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Praj Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Praj Industries Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Praj Industries Risk Indicators

The analysis of Praj Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Praj Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting praj stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Praj Stock

Praj Industries financial ratios help investors to determine whether Praj Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Praj with respect to the benefits of owning Praj Industries security.