Plastiblends India Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PLASTIBLEN   246.50  6.41  2.67%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Plastiblends India Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 249.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 419.83. Plastiblends Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Plastiblends India stock prices and determine the direction of Plastiblends India Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Plastiblends India's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Plastiblends India is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Plastiblends India Limited value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Plastiblends India Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Plastiblends India Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 249.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.88, mean absolute percentage error of 74.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 419.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Plastiblends Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Plastiblends India's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Plastiblends India Stock Forecast Pattern

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Plastiblends India Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Plastiblends India's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Plastiblends India's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 247.12 and 251.48, respectively. We have considered Plastiblends India's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
246.50
247.12
Downside
249.30
Expected Value
251.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Plastiblends India stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Plastiblends India stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.4193
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.8825
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0272
SAESum of the absolute errors419.8336
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Plastiblends India Limited. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Plastiblends India. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Plastiblends India

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Plastiblends India. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Plastiblends India's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
244.92247.12249.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
224.74226.94271.15
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Plastiblends India

For every potential investor in Plastiblends, whether a beginner or expert, Plastiblends India's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Plastiblends Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Plastiblends. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Plastiblends India's price trends.

Plastiblends India Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Plastiblends India stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Plastiblends India could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Plastiblends India by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Plastiblends India Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Plastiblends India's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Plastiblends India's current price.

Plastiblends India Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Plastiblends India stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Plastiblends India shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Plastiblends India stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Plastiblends India Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Plastiblends India Risk Indicators

The analysis of Plastiblends India's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Plastiblends India's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting plastiblends stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Plastiblends Stock

Plastiblends India financial ratios help investors to determine whether Plastiblends Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Plastiblends with respect to the benefits of owning Plastiblends India security.