Pitney Bowes Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PBI Stock  USD 7.90  0.10  1.28%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pitney Bowes on the next trading day is expected to be 8.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.26. Pitney Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Pitney Bowes' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
As of now, Pitney Bowes' Inventory Turnover is increasing as compared to previous years. The Pitney Bowes' current Payables Turnover is estimated to increase to 8.34, while Receivables Turnover is projected to decrease to 3.16. . The Pitney Bowes' current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 196 M, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is projected to decrease to under 31.6 M.

Pitney Bowes Cash Forecast

Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Pitney Bowes' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1985-12-31
Previous Quarter
590.1 M
Current Value
561.5 M
Quarterly Volatility
312.2 M
 
Black Monday
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Pitney Bowes is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Pitney Bowes value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Pitney Bowes Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pitney Bowes on the next trading day is expected to be 8.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.26.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pitney Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pitney Bowes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pitney Bowes Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Pitney BowesPitney Bowes Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Pitney Bowes Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Pitney Bowes' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pitney Bowes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.76 and 10.44, respectively. We have considered Pitney Bowes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.90
8.10
Expected Value
10.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pitney Bowes stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pitney Bowes stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.7454
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1354
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0183
SAESum of the absolute errors8.2568
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Pitney Bowes. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Pitney Bowes. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Pitney Bowes

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pitney Bowes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.477.8110.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.966.308.64
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
4.555.005.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Pitney Bowes. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Pitney Bowes' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Pitney Bowes' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Pitney Bowes.

Other Forecasting Options for Pitney Bowes

For every potential investor in Pitney, whether a beginner or expert, Pitney Bowes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pitney Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pitney. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pitney Bowes' price trends.

Pitney Bowes Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pitney Bowes stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pitney Bowes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pitney Bowes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Pitney Bowes Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pitney Bowes' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pitney Bowes' current price.

Pitney Bowes Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pitney Bowes stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pitney Bowes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pitney Bowes stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pitney Bowes entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Pitney Bowes Risk Indicators

The analysis of Pitney Bowes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pitney Bowes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pitney stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Pitney Bowes offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Pitney Bowes' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Pitney Bowes Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Pitney Bowes Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pitney Bowes to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Pitney Stock please use our How to Invest in Pitney Bowes guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Commercial Services & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pitney Bowes. If investors know Pitney will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pitney Bowes listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
4.614
Dividend Share
0.2
Earnings Share
(1.41)
Revenue Per Share
18.105
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
The market value of Pitney Bowes is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pitney that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pitney Bowes' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pitney Bowes' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pitney Bowes' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pitney Bowes' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pitney Bowes' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Pitney Bowes is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pitney Bowes' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.