Nexpoint Real Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

NREF Stock  USD 17.09  0.15  0.87%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nexpoint Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 17.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.12. Nexpoint Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Nexpoint Real's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At this time, Nexpoint Real's Inventory Turnover is most likely to increase slightly in the upcoming years. The Nexpoint Real's current Receivables Turnover is estimated to increase to 15.47, while Payables Turnover is projected to decrease to 0.88. . The Nexpoint Real's current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 47.8 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is projected to decrease to roughly 12.5 M.
Triple exponential smoothing for Nexpoint Real - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Nexpoint Real prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Nexpoint Real price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Nexpoint Real Estate.

Nexpoint Real Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nexpoint Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 17.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nexpoint Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nexpoint Real's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nexpoint Real Stock Forecast Pattern

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Nexpoint Real Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nexpoint Real's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nexpoint Real's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.17 and 19.11, respectively. We have considered Nexpoint Real's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.09
17.14
Expected Value
19.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nexpoint Real stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nexpoint Real stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0336
MADMean absolute deviation0.2224
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0142
SAESum of the absolute errors13.12
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Nexpoint Real observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Nexpoint Real Estate observations.

Predictive Modules for Nexpoint Real

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nexpoint Real Estate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nexpoint Real's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.1017.0719.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.9616.9318.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
16.7917.3617.92
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
15.7717.3319.24
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Nexpoint Real

For every potential investor in Nexpoint, whether a beginner or expert, Nexpoint Real's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nexpoint Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nexpoint. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nexpoint Real's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Nexpoint Real Estate Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nexpoint Real's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nexpoint Real's current price.

Nexpoint Real Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nexpoint Real stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nexpoint Real shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nexpoint Real stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nexpoint Real Estate entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Nexpoint Real Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nexpoint Real's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nexpoint Real's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nexpoint stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Nexpoint Real Estate is a strong investment it is important to analyze Nexpoint Real's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Nexpoint Real's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Nexpoint Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nexpoint Real to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nexpoint Real. If investors know Nexpoint will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nexpoint Real listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.067
Dividend Share
2
Earnings Share
1.33
Revenue Per Share
4.218
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.52
The market value of Nexpoint Real Estate is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nexpoint that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nexpoint Real's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nexpoint Real's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nexpoint Real's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nexpoint Real's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nexpoint Real's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nexpoint Real is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nexpoint Real's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.