National Presto Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

NPK Stock  USD 85.39  2.25  2.71%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of National Presto Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 84.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.56. National Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although National Presto's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of National Presto's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of National Presto fundamentals over time.
  
Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 13.34 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 1.36. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 37.4 M this year, although the value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding will most likely fall to about 5.7 M.
A two period moving average forecast for National Presto is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

National Presto Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of National Presto Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 84.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01, mean absolute percentage error of 2.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Presto's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

National Presto Stock Forecast Pattern

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National Presto Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting National Presto's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Presto's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 82.61 and 85.92, respectively. We have considered National Presto's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
85.39
84.27
Expected Value
85.92
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Presto stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Presto stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.1392
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2675
MADMean absolute deviation1.0095
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0133
SAESum of the absolute errors59.56
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of National Presto Industries price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of National Presto. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for National Presto

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Presto Indu. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
81.4883.1084.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
46.5148.1391.45
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
76.6279.4682.29
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
17.2318.9321.01
Details

Other Forecasting Options for National Presto

For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Presto's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Presto's price trends.

National Presto Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Presto stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Presto could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Presto by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

National Presto Indu Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of National Presto's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of National Presto's current price.

National Presto Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Presto stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Presto shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Presto stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Presto Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

National Presto Risk Indicators

The analysis of National Presto's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Presto's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether National Presto Indu is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if National Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about National Presto Industries Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about National Presto Industries Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Presto to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Presto. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Presto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.148
Dividend Share
1
Earnings Share
4.76
Revenue Per Share
49.414
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.104
The market value of National Presto Indu is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Presto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Presto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Presto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Presto's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Presto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Presto is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Presto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.