Bank Nationalnobu Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

NOBU Stock  IDR 685.00  10.00  1.48%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank Nationalnobu Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 685.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 645.00. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Bank Nationalnobu simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Bank Nationalnobu Tbk are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Bank Nationalnobu Tbk prices get older.

Bank Nationalnobu Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank Nationalnobu Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 685.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.75, mean absolute percentage error of 241.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 645.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank Nationalnobu's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bank Nationalnobu Stock Forecast Pattern

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Bank Nationalnobu Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bank Nationalnobu's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank Nationalnobu's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 682.71 and 687.29, respectively. We have considered Bank Nationalnobu's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
685.00
682.71
Downside
685.00
Expected Value
687.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank Nationalnobu stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank Nationalnobu stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.7585
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.0833
MADMean absolute deviation10.75
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.016
SAESum of the absolute errors645.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Bank Nationalnobu Tbk forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Bank Nationalnobu observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Bank Nationalnobu

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Nationalnobu Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
682.71685.00687.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
566.81569.10753.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
635.09664.00692.91
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Bank Nationalnobu

For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank Nationalnobu's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank Nationalnobu's price trends.

Bank Nationalnobu Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank Nationalnobu stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank Nationalnobu could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank Nationalnobu by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bank Nationalnobu Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank Nationalnobu's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank Nationalnobu's current price.

Bank Nationalnobu Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank Nationalnobu stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank Nationalnobu shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank Nationalnobu stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank Nationalnobu Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bank Nationalnobu Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank Nationalnobu's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank Nationalnobu's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Bank Stock

Bank Nationalnobu financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bank Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bank with respect to the benefits of owning Bank Nationalnobu security.