NOV Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

NO8 Stock  EUR 14.19  0.10  0.71%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of NOV Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 14.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.25. NOV Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of NOV's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A two period moving average forecast for NOV is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

NOV Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of NOV Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 14.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.25.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NOV Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NOV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

NOV Stock Forecast Pattern

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NOV Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting NOV's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NOV's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.27 and 16.11, respectively. We have considered NOV's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.19
14.19
Expected Value
16.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NOV stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NOV stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.2056
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0112
MADMean absolute deviation0.2415
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0164
SAESum of the absolute errors14.25
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of NOV Inc price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of NOV. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for NOV

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NOV Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.1714.0916.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.5314.4516.37
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.0714.9715.87
Details

Other Forecasting Options for NOV

For every potential investor in NOV, whether a beginner or expert, NOV's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NOV Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NOV. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NOV's price trends.

NOV Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NOV stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NOV could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NOV by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

NOV Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NOV's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NOV's current price.

NOV Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NOV stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NOV shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NOV stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NOV Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

NOV Risk Indicators

The analysis of NOV's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NOV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nov stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in NOV Stock

When determining whether NOV Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze NOV's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact NOV's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding NOV Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NOV to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NOV's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NOV is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NOV's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.