MTN Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MTN Stock   8,278  200.00  2.48%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MTN Group on the next trading day is expected to be 8,278 with a mean absolute deviation of 89.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,373. MTN Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MTN stock prices and determine the direction of MTN Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MTN's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
MTN simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for MTN Group are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as MTN Group prices get older.

MTN Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MTN Group on the next trading day is expected to be 8,278 with a mean absolute deviation of 89.55, mean absolute percentage error of 13,447, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,373.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MTN Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MTN's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

MTN Stock Forecast Pattern

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MTN Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting MTN's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MTN's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8,277 and 8,279, respectively. We have considered MTN's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8,278
8,278
Expected Value
8,279
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MTN stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MTN stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.7792
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 16.0833
MADMean absolute deviation89.55
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0103
SAESum of the absolute errors5373.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting MTN Group forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent MTN observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for MTN

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MTN Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8,0778,0788,079
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7,0957,0968,886
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
8,0918,1828,272
Details

Other Forecasting Options for MTN

For every potential investor in MTN, whether a beginner or expert, MTN's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MTN Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MTN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MTN's price trends.

MTN Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MTN stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MTN could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MTN by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

MTN Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MTN's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MTN's current price.

MTN Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MTN stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MTN shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MTN stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MTN Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

MTN Risk Indicators

The analysis of MTN's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MTN's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mtn stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in MTN Stock

MTN financial ratios help investors to determine whether MTN Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in MTN with respect to the benefits of owning MTN security.