Mastercard Incorporated Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

MSCD34 Stock  BRL 104.27  0.01  0.01%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mastercard Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 104.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.06. Mastercard Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mastercard Incorporated stock prices and determine the direction of Mastercard Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mastercard Incorporated's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Mastercard Incorporated - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Mastercard Incorporated prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Mastercard Incorporated price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Mastercard Incorporated.

Mastercard Incorporated Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mastercard Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 104.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.19, mean absolute percentage error of 2.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.06.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mastercard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mastercard Incorporated's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mastercard Incorporated Stock Forecast Pattern

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Mastercard Incorporated Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mastercard Incorporated's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mastercard Incorporated's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 103.16 and 106.18, respectively. We have considered Mastercard Incorporated's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
104.27
103.16
Downside
104.67
Expected Value
106.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mastercard Incorporated stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mastercard Incorporated stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.2529
MADMean absolute deviation1.1875
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0125
SAESum of the absolute errors70.0604
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Mastercard Incorporated observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Mastercard Incorporated observations.

Predictive Modules for Mastercard Incorporated

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mastercard Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
102.77104.27105.77
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
91.2992.79114.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mastercard Incorporated. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mastercard Incorporated's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mastercard Incorporated's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mastercard Incorporated.

Other Forecasting Options for Mastercard Incorporated

For every potential investor in Mastercard, whether a beginner or expert, Mastercard Incorporated's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mastercard Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mastercard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mastercard Incorporated's price trends.

Mastercard Incorporated Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mastercard Incorporated stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mastercard Incorporated could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mastercard Incorporated by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mastercard Incorporated Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mastercard Incorporated's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mastercard Incorporated's current price.

Mastercard Incorporated Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mastercard Incorporated stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mastercard Incorporated shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mastercard Incorporated stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mastercard Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mastercard Incorporated Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mastercard Incorporated's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mastercard Incorporated's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mastercard stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Mastercard Stock

Mastercard Incorporated financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mastercard Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mastercard with respect to the benefits of owning Mastercard Incorporated security.