Merus BV Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MRUS Stock | USD 44.90 2.10 4.91% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merus BV on the next trading day is expected to be 44.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.43. Merus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Merus |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Merus BV's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2013-12-31 | Previous Quarter 629.5 M | Current Value 433 M | Quarterly Volatility 117.5 M |
Merus BV Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merus BV on the next trading day is expected to be 44.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.19, mean absolute percentage error of 2.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merus BV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Merus BV Stock Forecast Pattern
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Merus BV Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Merus BV's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merus BV's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.36 and 47.53, respectively. We have considered Merus BV's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merus BV stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merus BV stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.1035 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1873 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0246 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 72.4252 |
Predictive Modules for Merus BV
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merus BV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merus BV's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Merus BV
For every potential investor in Merus, whether a beginner or expert, Merus BV's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merus BV's price trends.View Merus BV Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Merus BV Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Merus BV's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Merus BV's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Merus BV Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merus BV stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merus BV shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merus BV stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merus BV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Merus BV Risk Indicators
The analysis of Merus BV's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merus BV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.57 | |||
| Variance | 6.59 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Merus Stock Analysis
When running Merus BV's price analysis, check to measure Merus BV's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merus BV is operating at the current time. Most of Merus BV's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merus BV's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merus BV's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merus BV to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.