Mainstay Conservative Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

MNEAX Fund  USD 10.96  0.05  0.46%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mainstay Conservative Etf on the next trading day is expected to be 10.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.09. Mainstay Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Mainstay Conservative - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Mainstay Conservative prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Mainstay Conservative price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Mainstay Conservative Etf.

Mainstay Conservative Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mainstay Conservative Etf on the next trading day is expected to be 10.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mainstay Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mainstay Conservative's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mainstay Conservative Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mainstay ConservativeMainstay Conservative Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Mainstay Conservative Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mainstay Conservative's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mainstay Conservative's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.54 and 11.36, respectively. We have considered Mainstay Conservative's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.96
10.95
Expected Value
11.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mainstay Conservative mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mainstay Conservative mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0069
MADMean absolute deviation0.0354
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0032
SAESum of the absolute errors2.09
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Mainstay Conservative observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Mainstay Conservative Etf observations.

Predictive Modules for Mainstay Conservative

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mainstay Conservative Etf. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.5410.9611.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.5811.0011.42
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.9211.1811.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mainstay Conservative. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mainstay Conservative's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mainstay Conservative's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mainstay Conservative Etf.

Other Forecasting Options for Mainstay Conservative

For every potential investor in Mainstay, whether a beginner or expert, Mainstay Conservative's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mainstay Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mainstay. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mainstay Conservative's price trends.

Mainstay Conservative Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mainstay Conservative mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mainstay Conservative could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mainstay Conservative by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mainstay Conservative Etf Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mainstay Conservative's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mainstay Conservative's current price.

Mainstay Conservative Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mainstay Conservative mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mainstay Conservative shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mainstay Conservative mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Mainstay Conservative Etf entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mainstay Conservative Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mainstay Conservative's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mainstay Conservative's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mainstay mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Mainstay Mutual Fund

Mainstay Conservative financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mainstay Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mainstay with respect to the benefits of owning Mainstay Conservative security.
Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Analyst Advice
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets