Misr Hotels Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MHOT Stock | 30.61 1.42 4.43% |
Misr |
Misr Hotels Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Misr Hotels on the next trading day is expected to be 30.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 1.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Misr Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Misr Hotels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Misr Hotels Stock Forecast Pattern
Misr Hotels Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Misr Hotels' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Misr Hotels' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.35 and 34.87, respectively. We have considered Misr Hotels' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Misr Hotels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Misr Hotels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3115 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1092 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6197 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0215 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.8 |
Predictive Modules for Misr Hotels
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Misr Hotels. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Misr Hotels
For every potential investor in Misr, whether a beginner or expert, Misr Hotels' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Misr Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Misr. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Misr Hotels' price trends.Misr Hotels Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Misr Hotels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Misr Hotels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Misr Hotels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Misr Hotels Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Misr Hotels' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Misr Hotels' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Misr Hotels Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Misr Hotels stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Misr Hotels shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Misr Hotels stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Misr Hotels entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1067.87 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.14) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 31.13 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.95 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.23) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.42) |
Misr Hotels Risk Indicators
The analysis of Misr Hotels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Misr Hotels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting misr stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.93 | |||
| Variance | 15.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.67 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.96) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.