Moderna Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

M1RN34 Stock  BRL 13.64  0.92  7.23%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Moderna on the next trading day is expected to be 13.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.14. Moderna Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Moderna stock prices and determine the direction of Moderna's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Moderna's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Moderna - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Moderna prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Moderna price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Moderna.

Moderna Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Moderna on the next trading day is expected to be 13.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moderna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moderna's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Moderna Stock Forecast Pattern

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Moderna Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Moderna's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Moderna's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.89 and 17.57, respectively. We have considered Moderna's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.64
13.73
Expected Value
17.57
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moderna stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moderna stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0895
MADMean absolute deviation0.4261
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0291
SAESum of the absolute errors25.138
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Moderna observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Moderna observations.

Predictive Modules for Moderna

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moderna. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.7713.6417.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.3312.2016.07
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moderna. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moderna's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moderna's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Moderna.

Other Forecasting Options for Moderna

For every potential investor in Moderna, whether a beginner or expert, Moderna's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moderna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moderna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moderna's price trends.

Moderna Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Moderna stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Moderna could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Moderna by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Moderna Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Moderna's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Moderna's current price.

Moderna Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Moderna stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Moderna shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Moderna stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Moderna entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Moderna Risk Indicators

The analysis of Moderna's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moderna's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting moderna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Moderna Stock

When determining whether Moderna offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Moderna's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Moderna Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Moderna Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moderna to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Moderna Stock refer to our How to Trade Moderna Stock guide.
You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moderna's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Moderna is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moderna's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.