Eli Lilly Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| LLY Stock | 28.58 0.32 1.13% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eli Lilly and on the next trading day is expected to be 28.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.61. Eli Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Eli |
Eli Lilly Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eli Lilly and on the next trading day is expected to be 28.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eli Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eli Lilly's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Eli Lilly Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Eli Lilly | Eli Lilly Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Eli Lilly Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Eli Lilly's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eli Lilly's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.54 and 30.45, respectively. We have considered Eli Lilly's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eli Lilly stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eli Lilly stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0633 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4341 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0143 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.6125 |
Predictive Modules for Eli Lilly
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eli Lilly. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Eli Lilly
For every potential investor in Eli, whether a beginner or expert, Eli Lilly's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eli Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eli. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eli Lilly's price trends.Eli Lilly Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eli Lilly stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eli Lilly could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eli Lilly by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Eli Lilly Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eli Lilly's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eli Lilly's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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Eli Lilly Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eli Lilly stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eli Lilly shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eli Lilly stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eli Lilly and entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Eli Lilly Risk Indicators
The analysis of Eli Lilly's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eli Lilly's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eli stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Variance | 3.73 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Eli Lilly
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Eli Lilly position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Eli Lilly will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Eli Stock
| 0.87 | DAY | Dayforce | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | IAG | iA Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | RBA | Ritchie Bros Auctioneers | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | BAM | Brookfield Asset Man | PairCorr |
| 0.81 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Eli Lilly could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Eli Lilly when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Eli Lilly - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Eli Lilly and to buy it.
The correlation of Eli Lilly is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Eli Lilly moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Eli Lilly moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Eli Lilly can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eli Lilly to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.