Amplify ETF Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

IPAY Etf  USD 61.70  0.20  0.33%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amplify ETF Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 61.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.31. Amplify Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  

Open Interest Against 2024-12-20 Amplify Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Amplify ETF's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Amplify ETF's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Amplify ETF stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Amplify ETF's open interest, investors have to compare it to Amplify ETF's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Amplify ETF is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Amplify. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
A naive forecasting model for Amplify ETF is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Amplify ETF Trust value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Amplify ETF Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amplify ETF Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 61.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68, mean absolute percentage error of 0.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.31.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amplify Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amplify ETF's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amplify ETF Etf Forecast Pattern

Backtest Amplify ETFAmplify ETF Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Amplify ETF Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amplify ETF's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amplify ETF's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.98 and 62.59, respectively. We have considered Amplify ETF's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
61.70
61.29
Expected Value
62.59
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amplify ETF etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amplify ETF etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.9274
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6772
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0124
SAESum of the absolute errors41.307
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Amplify ETF Trust. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Amplify ETF. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Amplify ETF

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amplify ETF Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
59.9761.2862.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
55.3565.3066.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
59.3060.4961.69
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amplify ETF. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amplify ETF's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amplify ETF's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Amplify ETF Trust.

Other Forecasting Options for Amplify ETF

For every potential investor in Amplify, whether a beginner or expert, Amplify ETF's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amplify Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amplify. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amplify ETF's price trends.

Amplify ETF Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amplify ETF etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amplify ETF could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amplify ETF by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amplify ETF Trust Technical and Predictive Analytics

The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amplify ETF's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amplify ETF's current price.

Amplify ETF Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amplify ETF etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amplify ETF shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amplify ETF etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Amplify ETF Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amplify ETF Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amplify ETF's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amplify ETF's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amplify etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Amplify ETF Trust is a strong investment it is important to analyze Amplify ETF's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Amplify ETF's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Amplify Etf, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amplify ETF to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Amplify Etf please use our How to Invest in Amplify ETF guide.
You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
The market value of Amplify ETF Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amplify that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amplify ETF's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amplify ETF's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amplify ETF's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amplify ETF's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amplify ETF's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amplify ETF is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amplify ETF's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.