Indara Insurance Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

INSURE Stock  THB 79.00  2.00  2.60%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Indara Insurance Public on the next trading day is expected to be 78.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.23. Indara Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Indara Insurance stock prices and determine the direction of Indara Insurance Public's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Indara Insurance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Indara Insurance works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Indara Insurance Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Indara Insurance Public on the next trading day is expected to be 78.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34, mean absolute percentage error of 5.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Indara Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Indara Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Indara Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern

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Indara Insurance Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Indara Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Indara Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 75.56 and 81.47, respectively. We have considered Indara Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
79.00
78.52
Expected Value
81.47
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Indara Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Indara Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.3002
MADMean absolute deviation1.3429
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0159
SAESum of the absolute errors79.2328
When Indara Insurance Public prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Indara Insurance Public trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Indara Insurance observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Indara Insurance

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Indara Insurance Public. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
74.0577.0079.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
65.1968.1484.70
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
77.0079.7182.43
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Indara Insurance

For every potential investor in Indara, whether a beginner or expert, Indara Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Indara Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Indara. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Indara Insurance's price trends.

Indara Insurance Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Indara Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Indara Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Indara Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Indara Insurance Public Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Indara Insurance's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Indara Insurance's current price.

Indara Insurance Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Indara Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Indara Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Indara Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Indara Insurance Public entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Indara Insurance Risk Indicators

The analysis of Indara Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Indara Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting indara stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Indara Stock

Indara Insurance financial ratios help investors to determine whether Indara Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Indara with respect to the benefits of owning Indara Insurance security.