DR Horton Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

HO2 Stock  EUR 134.10  2.98  2.27%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DR Horton on the next trading day is expected to be 133.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 162.91. HO2 Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of DR Horton's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for DR Horton - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When DR Horton prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in DR Horton price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of DR Horton.

DR Horton Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DR Horton on the next trading day is expected to be 133.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.76, mean absolute percentage error of 18.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 162.91.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HO2 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DR Horton's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

DR Horton Stock Forecast Pattern

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DR Horton Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting DR Horton's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DR Horton's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 130.50 and 135.65, respectively. We have considered DR Horton's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
134.10
130.50
Downside
133.08
Expected Value
135.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DR Horton stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DR Horton stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.7301
MADMean absolute deviation2.7611
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0178
SAESum of the absolute errors162.907
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past DR Horton observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older DR Horton observations.

Predictive Modules for DR Horton

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DR Horton. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
131.54134.10136.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
120.69144.31146.87
Details

Other Forecasting Options for DR Horton

For every potential investor in HO2, whether a beginner or expert, DR Horton's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HO2 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HO2. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DR Horton's price trends.

DR Horton Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DR Horton stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DR Horton could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DR Horton by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

DR Horton Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of DR Horton's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of DR Horton's current price.

DR Horton Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DR Horton stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DR Horton shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DR Horton stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DR Horton entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

DR Horton Risk Indicators

The analysis of DR Horton's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DR Horton's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ho2 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in HO2 Stock

When determining whether DR Horton offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of DR Horton's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Dr Horton Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Dr Horton Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DR Horton to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in HO2 Stock please use our How to Invest in DR Horton guide.
You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Please note, there is a significant difference between DR Horton's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if DR Horton is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, DR Horton's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.