Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

HLAGF Stock  USD 158.21  8.57  5.14%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hapag Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft on the next trading day is expected to be 158.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 201.99. Hapag-Lloyd Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha.

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hapag Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft on the next trading day is expected to be 158.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.42, mean absolute percentage error of 40.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 201.99.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hapag-Lloyd Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 154.52 and 161.90, respectively. We have considered Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
158.21
154.52
Downside
158.21
Expected Value
161.90
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1392
MADMean absolute deviation3.4236
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0204
SAESum of the absolute errors201.99
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Hapag Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft observations.

Predictive Modules for Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
154.52158.21161.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
133.11136.80174.03
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
157.05163.92170.79
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha.

Other Forecasting Options for Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha

For every potential investor in Hapag-Lloyd, whether a beginner or expert, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hapag-Lloyd Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hapag-Lloyd. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's price trends.

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's current price.

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Hapag Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hapag-lloyd pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Hapag-Lloyd Pink Sheet

Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hapag-Lloyd Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hapag-Lloyd with respect to the benefits of owning Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellscha security.