CSHG Renda Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

HGRU11 Fund   116.00  0.92  0.79%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of CSHG Renda Urbana on the next trading day is expected to be 116.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.22. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast CSHG Renda's fund prices and determine the direction of CSHG Renda Urbana's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for CSHG Renda Urbana is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

CSHG Renda 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 9th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of CSHG Renda Urbana on the next trading day is expected to be 116.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.37, mean absolute percentage error of 3.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CSHG Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CSHG Renda's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CSHG Renda Fund Forecast Pattern

CSHG Renda Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CSHG Renda's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CSHG Renda's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 115.17 and 117.45, respectively. We have considered CSHG Renda's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
116.00
115.17
Downside
116.31
Expected Value
117.45
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CSHG Renda fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CSHG Renda fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.8419
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0169
MADMean absolute deviation1.3658
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.012
SAESum of the absolute errors79.2175
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of CSHG Renda. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for CSHG Renda Urbana and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for CSHG Renda

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CSHG Renda Urbana. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for CSHG Renda

For every potential investor in CSHG, whether a beginner or expert, CSHG Renda's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CSHG Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CSHG. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CSHG Renda's price trends.

CSHG Renda Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CSHG Renda fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CSHG Renda could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CSHG Renda by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CSHG Renda Urbana Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CSHG Renda's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CSHG Renda's current price.

CSHG Renda Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CSHG Renda fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CSHG Renda shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CSHG Renda fund market strength indicators, traders can identify CSHG Renda Urbana entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CSHG Renda Risk Indicators

The analysis of CSHG Renda's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CSHG Renda's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cshg fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
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