Handelsinvest Danske Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

HAIDKOBL  DKK 98.46  0.10  0.10%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Handelsinvest Danske Obligationer on the next trading day is expected to be 98.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.34. Handelsinvest Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Handelsinvest Danske stock prices and determine the direction of Handelsinvest Danske Obligationer's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Handelsinvest Danske's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Handelsinvest Danske - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Handelsinvest Danske prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Handelsinvest Danske price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Handelsinvest Danske.

Handelsinvest Danske Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Handelsinvest Danske Obligationer on the next trading day is expected to be 98.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Handelsinvest Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Handelsinvest Danske's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Handelsinvest Danske Stock Forecast Pattern

Handelsinvest Danske Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Handelsinvest Danske's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Handelsinvest Danske's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 98.34 and 98.56, respectively. We have considered Handelsinvest Danske's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
98.46
98.45
Expected Value
98.56
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Handelsinvest Danske stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Handelsinvest Danske stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0134
MADMean absolute deviation0.0905
MAPEMean absolute percentage error9.0E-4
SAESum of the absolute errors5.3395
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Handelsinvest Danske observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Handelsinvest Danske Obligationer observations.

Predictive Modules for Handelsinvest Danske

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Handelsinvest Danske. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
98.3598.4698.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
82.4182.52108.31
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
98.1798.5198.84
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Handelsinvest Danske

For every potential investor in Handelsinvest, whether a beginner or expert, Handelsinvest Danske's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Handelsinvest Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Handelsinvest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Handelsinvest Danske's price trends.

Handelsinvest Danske Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Handelsinvest Danske stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Handelsinvest Danske could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Handelsinvest Danske by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Handelsinvest Danske Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Handelsinvest Danske's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Handelsinvest Danske's current price.

Handelsinvest Danske Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Handelsinvest Danske stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Handelsinvest Danske shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Handelsinvest Danske stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Handelsinvest Danske Obligationer entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Handelsinvest Danske Risk Indicators

The analysis of Handelsinvest Danske's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Handelsinvest Danske's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting handelsinvest stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Handelsinvest Danske

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Handelsinvest Danske position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Handelsinvest Danske will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Handelsinvest Stock

  0.76MAERSK-B AP MllerPairCorr
  0.77MAERSK-A AP MllerPairCorr

Moving against Handelsinvest Stock

  0.83ORSTED Orsted ASPairCorr
  0.81VWS Vestas Wind SystemsPairCorr
  0.79CARL-A Carlsberg ASPairCorr
  0.7CARL-B Carlsberg ASPairCorr
  0.58GMAB Genmab ASPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Handelsinvest Danske could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Handelsinvest Danske when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Handelsinvest Danske - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Handelsinvest Danske Obligationer to buy it.
The correlation of Handelsinvest Danske is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Handelsinvest Danske moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Handelsinvest Danske moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Handelsinvest Danske can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Handelsinvest Stock

Handelsinvest Danske financial ratios help investors to determine whether Handelsinvest Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Handelsinvest with respect to the benefits of owning Handelsinvest Danske security.