Alphabet Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

GOOG Stock   32.79  0.18  0.55%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Alphabet Inc CDR on the next trading day is expected to be 33.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.11. Alphabet Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alphabet stock prices and determine the direction of Alphabet Inc CDR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alphabet's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Alphabet's Other Liabilities is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Other Assets is expected to grow to about 14.3 B, whereas Total Current Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 64.5 B.
Alphabet polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Alphabet Inc CDR as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Alphabet Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Alphabet Inc CDR on the next trading day is expected to be 33.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74, mean absolute percentage error of 0.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.11.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alphabet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alphabet's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alphabet Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest AlphabetAlphabet Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Alphabet Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alphabet's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alphabet's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.70 and 35.33, respectively. We have considered Alphabet's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
32.79
33.52
Expected Value
35.33
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alphabet stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alphabet stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.6865
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7438
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0253
SAESum of the absolute errors46.1136
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Alphabet historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Alphabet

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alphabet CDR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
30.7132.5334.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
29.5137.0038.82
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Alphabet

For every potential investor in Alphabet, whether a beginner or expert, Alphabet's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alphabet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alphabet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alphabet's price trends.

Alphabet Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alphabet stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alphabet could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alphabet by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alphabet CDR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alphabet's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alphabet's current price.

Alphabet Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alphabet stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alphabet shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alphabet stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alphabet Inc CDR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alphabet Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alphabet's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alphabet's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alphabet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Alphabet

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alphabet position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alphabet will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Alphabet Stock

  0.69WMT Walmart Inc CDRPairCorr
  0.88AMZN Amazon CDRPairCorr
  0.7AAPL Apple Inc CDRPairCorr

Moving against Alphabet Stock

  0.84CVS CVS HEALTH CDRPairCorr
  0.72XOM EXXON MOBIL CDRPairCorr
  0.62UNH UnitedHealth Group CDRPairCorr
  0.41QTWO Q2 Metals CorpPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alphabet could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alphabet when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alphabet - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alphabet Inc CDR to buy it.
The correlation of Alphabet is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alphabet moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alphabet CDR moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alphabet can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Alphabet Stock

Alphabet financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alphabet Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alphabet with respect to the benefits of owning Alphabet security.