Gjensidige Forsikring OTC Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

GJNSF Stock  USD 17.52  2.12  13.77%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA on the next trading day is expected to be 17.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.12. Gjensidige OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Gjensidige Forsikring's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Gjensidige Forsikring - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Gjensidige Forsikring prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Gjensidige Forsikring price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA.

Gjensidige Forsikring Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA on the next trading day is expected to be 17.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gjensidige OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gjensidige Forsikring's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Gjensidige Forsikring OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

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Gjensidige Forsikring Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Gjensidige Forsikring's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gjensidige Forsikring's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.80 and 19.24, respectively. We have considered Gjensidige Forsikring's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.52
17.52
Expected Value
19.24
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gjensidige Forsikring otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gjensidige Forsikring otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0359
MADMean absolute deviation0.0359
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0021
SAESum of the absolute errors2.12
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Gjensidige Forsikring observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Gjensidige Forsikring ASA observations.

Predictive Modules for Gjensidige Forsikring

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gjensidige Forsikring ASA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gjensidige Forsikring's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.8017.5219.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.7720.0521.77
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.5716.6217.67
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Gjensidige Forsikring

For every potential investor in Gjensidige, whether a beginner or expert, Gjensidige Forsikring's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gjensidige OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gjensidige. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gjensidige Forsikring's price trends.

Gjensidige Forsikring Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gjensidige Forsikring otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gjensidige Forsikring could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gjensidige Forsikring by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The otc stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gjensidige Forsikring's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gjensidige Forsikring's current price.

Gjensidige Forsikring Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gjensidige Forsikring otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gjensidige Forsikring shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gjensidige Forsikring otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gjensidige Forsikring ASA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Gjensidige Forsikring Risk Indicators

The analysis of Gjensidige Forsikring's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gjensidige Forsikring's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gjensidige otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Gjensidige OTC Stock

Gjensidige Forsikring financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gjensidige OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gjensidige with respect to the benefits of owning Gjensidige Forsikring security.