Fortuna Silver Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FVI Stock  EUR 3.80  0.02  0.52%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fortuna Silver Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 3.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.25. Fortuna Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fortuna Silver's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Fortuna Silver - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Fortuna Silver prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Fortuna Silver price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Fortuna Silver Mines.

Fortuna Silver Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fortuna Silver Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 3.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.25.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fortuna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fortuna Silver's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fortuna Silver Stock Forecast Pattern

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Fortuna Silver Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fortuna Silver's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fortuna Silver's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.78 and 6.83, respectively. We have considered Fortuna Silver's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.80
3.80
Expected Value
6.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fortuna Silver stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fortuna Silver stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0148
MADMean absolute deviation0.089
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0226
SAESum of the absolute errors5.2494
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Fortuna Silver observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Fortuna Silver Mines observations.

Predictive Modules for Fortuna Silver

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fortuna Silver Mines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.803.826.84
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.213.236.25
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Fortuna Silver

For every potential investor in Fortuna, whether a beginner or expert, Fortuna Silver's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fortuna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fortuna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fortuna Silver's price trends.

Fortuna Silver Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fortuna Silver stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fortuna Silver could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fortuna Silver by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fortuna Silver Mines Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fortuna Silver's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fortuna Silver's current price.

Fortuna Silver Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fortuna Silver stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fortuna Silver shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fortuna Silver stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fortuna Silver Mines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fortuna Silver Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fortuna Silver's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fortuna Silver's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fortuna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Fortuna Stock

When determining whether Fortuna Silver Mines is a strong investment it is important to analyze Fortuna Silver's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Fortuna Silver's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Fortuna Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fortuna Silver to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fortuna Silver's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fortuna Silver is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fortuna Silver's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.