Fortuna Silver (Germany) Market Value
| FVI Stock | EUR 3.90 0.10 2.50% |
| Symbol | Fortuna |
Fortuna Silver 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Fortuna Silver's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Fortuna Silver.
| 12/09/2023 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Fortuna Silver on December 9, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Fortuna Silver Mines or generate 0.0% return on investment in Fortuna Silver over 360 days. Fortuna Silver is related to or competes with Charter Communications, Penta-Ocean Construction, North American, Hitachi Construction, Daito Trust, INTERSHOP Communications, and Titan Machinery. Fair Value REIT-AG, with its registered offices in Graefelfing in the Munich district, concentrates its activities on ac... More
Fortuna Silver Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Fortuna Silver's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Fortuna Silver Mines upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.85 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0409 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.09 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.58) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.44 |
Fortuna Silver Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fortuna Silver's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Fortuna Silver's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Fortuna Silver historical prices to predict the future Fortuna Silver's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0654 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1261 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.28) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0383 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2204 |
Fortuna Silver Mines Backtested Returns
Fortuna Silver appears to be unstable, given 3 months investment horizon. Fortuna Silver Mines secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.12, which denotes the company had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Fortuna Silver Mines, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Fortuna Silver's Coefficient Of Variation of 1328.16, downside deviation of 3.85, and Mean Deviation of 2.58 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Fortuna Silver holds a performance score of 9. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.19, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Fortuna Silver will likely underperform. Please check Fortuna Silver's sortino ratio, potential upside, skewness, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and semi variance , to make a quick decision on whether Fortuna Silver's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.33 |
Below average predictability
Fortuna Silver Mines has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fortuna Silver time series from 9th of December 2023 to 6th of June 2024 and 6th of June 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fortuna Silver Mines price movement. The serial correlation of 0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current Fortuna Silver price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.33 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.12 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.09 |
Fortuna Silver Mines lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Fortuna Silver stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Fortuna Silver's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Fortuna Silver returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Fortuna Silver has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Fortuna Silver regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Fortuna Silver stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Fortuna Silver stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Fortuna Silver stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Fortuna Silver Lagged Returns
When evaluating Fortuna Silver's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Fortuna Silver stock have on its future price. Fortuna Silver autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Fortuna Silver autocorrelation shows the relationship between Fortuna Silver stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Fortuna Silver Mines.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Fortuna Stock
When determining whether Fortuna Silver Mines is a strong investment it is important to analyze Fortuna Silver's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Fortuna Silver's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Fortuna Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Fortuna Silver Correlation, Fortuna Silver Volatility and Fortuna Silver Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Fortuna Silver. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Fortuna Silver technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.