First Merchants Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| FRMEP Stock | USD 25.55 0.05 0.20% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of First Merchants on the next trading day is expected to be 25.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.92. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although First Merchants' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of First Merchants' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of First Merchants fundamentals over time.
First |
First Merchants 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of First Merchants on the next trading day is expected to be 25.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Merchants' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Merchants Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Merchants | First Merchants Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Merchants Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Merchants' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Merchants' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.02 and 26.03, respectively. We have considered First Merchants' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Merchants stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Merchants stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.076 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0225 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1039 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0041 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.925 |
Predictive Modules for First Merchants
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Merchants. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for First Merchants
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Merchants' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Merchants' price trends.First Merchants Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Merchants stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Merchants could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Merchants by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Merchants Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Merchants' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Merchants' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Merchants Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Merchants stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Merchants shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Merchants stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Merchants entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First Merchants Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Merchants' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Merchants' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2897 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3179 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5022 | |||
| Variance | 0.2522 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6024 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1011 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with First Merchants
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if First Merchants position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in First Merchants will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with First Stock
| 0.78 | AX | Axos Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | BY | Byline Bancorp Fiscal Year End 23rd of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | PB | Prosperity Bancshares Fiscal Year End 22nd of January 2025 | PairCorr |
Moving against First Stock
| 0.77 | CFG-PE | Citizens Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | TFC-PR | Truist Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | TFC-PO | Truist Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | WF | Woori Financial Group | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to First Merchants could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace First Merchants when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back First Merchants - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling First Merchants to buy it.
The correlation of First Merchants is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as First Merchants moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if First Merchants moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for First Merchants can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis
When running First Merchants' price analysis, check to measure First Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of First Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.