Smartfren Telecom Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

FREN Stock  IDR 23.00  1.00  4.17%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smartfren Telecom Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 22.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.32. Smartfren Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Smartfren Telecom works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Smartfren Telecom Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smartfren Telecom Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 22.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.77, mean absolute percentage error of 1.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smartfren Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smartfren Telecom's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Smartfren Telecom Stock Forecast Pattern

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Smartfren Telecom Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Smartfren Telecom's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smartfren Telecom's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.94 and 26.15, respectively. We have considered Smartfren Telecom's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
23.00
22.55
Expected Value
26.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smartfren Telecom stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smartfren Telecom stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1341
MADMean absolute deviation0.7682
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.029
SAESum of the absolute errors45.3245
When Smartfren Telecom Tbk prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Smartfren Telecom Tbk trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Smartfren Telecom observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Smartfren Telecom

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smartfren Telecom Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.4023.0026.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.7720.3723.97
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Smartfren Telecom

For every potential investor in Smartfren, whether a beginner or expert, Smartfren Telecom's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smartfren Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smartfren. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smartfren Telecom's price trends.

Smartfren Telecom Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smartfren Telecom stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smartfren Telecom could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smartfren Telecom by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Smartfren Telecom Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Smartfren Telecom's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Smartfren Telecom's current price.

Smartfren Telecom Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smartfren Telecom stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smartfren Telecom shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smartfren Telecom stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Smartfren Telecom Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Smartfren Telecom Risk Indicators

The analysis of Smartfren Telecom's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smartfren Telecom's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smartfren stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Smartfren Stock

Smartfren Telecom financial ratios help investors to determine whether Smartfren Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Smartfren with respect to the benefits of owning Smartfren Telecom security.