Smartfren Telecom (Indonesia) Market Value
| FREN Stock | IDR 22.00 1.00 4.35% |
| Symbol | Smartfren |
Smartfren Telecom 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Smartfren Telecom's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Smartfren Telecom.
| 02/03/2025 |
| 03/05/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Smartfren Telecom on February 3, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Smartfren Telecom Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Smartfren Telecom over 30 days. Smartfren Telecom is related to or competes with Indosat Tbk, XL Axiata, Energi Mega, Bakrie Brothers, and Medco Energi. More
Smartfren Telecom Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Smartfren Telecom's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Smartfren Telecom Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.41 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.35) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.35 |
Smartfren Telecom Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Smartfren Telecom's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Smartfren Telecom's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Smartfren Telecom historical prices to predict the future Smartfren Telecom's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1525 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.44) |
Smartfren Telecom Tbk Backtested Returns
Smartfren Telecom Tbk owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0635, which indicates the firm had a -0.0635 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Smartfren Telecom Tbk exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Smartfren Telecom's Coefficient Of Variation of (1,781), variance of 7.69, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.38, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Smartfren Telecom's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Smartfren Telecom is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Smartfren Telecom Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.18%. Please make sure to validate Smartfren Telecom's market risk adjusted performance, coefficient of variation, information ratio, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if Smartfren Telecom Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.7 |
Very good reverse predictability
Smartfren Telecom Tbk has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Smartfren Telecom time series from 3rd of February 2025 to 18th of February 2025 and 18th of February 2025 to 5th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Smartfren Telecom Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.7 indicates that around 70.0% of current Smartfren Telecom price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.7 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.27 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.38 |
Smartfren Telecom Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Smartfren Telecom stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Smartfren Telecom's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Smartfren Telecom returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Smartfren Telecom has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Smartfren Telecom regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Smartfren Telecom stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Smartfren Telecom stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Smartfren Telecom stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Smartfren Telecom Lagged Returns
When evaluating Smartfren Telecom's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Smartfren Telecom stock have on its future price. Smartfren Telecom autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Smartfren Telecom autocorrelation shows the relationship between Smartfren Telecom stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Smartfren Telecom Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Smartfren Telecom financial ratios help investors to determine whether Smartfren Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Smartfren with respect to the benefits of owning Smartfren Telecom security.