Flux Power Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FLUX Stock  USD 1.82  0.06  3.41%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Flux Power Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.51. Flux Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Flux Power's Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to rise to 18.88 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 1.69 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 19.4 M in 2024, whereas Net Loss is likely to drop (6.4 M) in 2024.
Triple exponential smoothing for Flux Power - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Flux Power prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Flux Power price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Flux Power Holdings.

Flux Power Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Flux Power Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Flux Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Flux Power's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Flux Power Stock Forecast Pattern

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Flux Power Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Flux Power's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Flux Power's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 7.25, respectively. We have considered Flux Power's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.82
1.79
Expected Value
7.25
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Flux Power stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Flux Power stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0055
MADMean absolute deviation0.0934
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0384
SAESum of the absolute errors5.5078
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Flux Power observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Flux Power Holdings observations.

Predictive Modules for Flux Power

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Flux Power Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Flux Power's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.091.857.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.214.149.62
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
10.3111.3312.58
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Flux Power

For every potential investor in Flux, whether a beginner or expert, Flux Power's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Flux Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Flux. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Flux Power's price trends.

Flux Power Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Flux Power stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Flux Power could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Flux Power by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Flux Power Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Flux Power's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Flux Power's current price.

Flux Power Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Flux Power stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Flux Power shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Flux Power stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Flux Power Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Flux Power Risk Indicators

The analysis of Flux Power's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Flux Power's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting flux stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Flux Stock Analysis

When running Flux Power's price analysis, check to measure Flux Power's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Flux Power is operating at the current time. Most of Flux Power's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Flux Power's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Flux Power's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Flux Power to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.