FuelCell Energy Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

FEY2 Stock  EUR 9.60  0.61  6.79%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of FuelCell Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 10.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.88. FuelCell Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FuelCell Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for FuelCell Energy is based on an artificially constructed time series of FuelCell Energy daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

FuelCell Energy 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of FuelCell Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 10.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.02, mean absolute percentage error of 1.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.88.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FuelCell Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FuelCell Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

FuelCell Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

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FuelCell Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting FuelCell Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FuelCell Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.49 and 19.98, respectively. We have considered FuelCell Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.60
10.24
Expected Value
19.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FuelCell Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FuelCell Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria103.9818
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -8.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation1.0166
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1191
SAESum of the absolute errors53.8813
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. FuelCell Energy 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for FuelCell Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FuelCell Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.489.6019.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.397.8917.62
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as FuelCell Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against FuelCell Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, FuelCell Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in FuelCell Energy.

Other Forecasting Options for FuelCell Energy

For every potential investor in FuelCell, whether a beginner or expert, FuelCell Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FuelCell Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FuelCell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FuelCell Energy's price trends.

FuelCell Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FuelCell Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FuelCell Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FuelCell Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

FuelCell Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FuelCell Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FuelCell Energy's current price.

FuelCell Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FuelCell Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FuelCell Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FuelCell Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FuelCell Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

FuelCell Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of FuelCell Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FuelCell Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fuelcell stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in FuelCell Stock

When determining whether FuelCell Energy is a strong investment it is important to analyze FuelCell Energy's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact FuelCell Energy's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding FuelCell Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FuelCell Energy to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in FuelCell Stock please use our How to Invest in FuelCell Energy guide.
You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FuelCell Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FuelCell Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FuelCell Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.