Fidelity California Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

FCTFX Fund  USD 12.41  0.02  0.16%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelity California Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 12.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.69. Fidelity Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Fidelity California is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Fidelity California Municipal value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Fidelity California Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelity California Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 12.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.69.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fidelity Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fidelity California's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fidelity California Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Fidelity California Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fidelity California's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fidelity California's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.13 and 12.67, respectively. We have considered Fidelity California's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.41
12.40
Expected Value
12.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fidelity California mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fidelity California mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.4091
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0276
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0023
SAESum of the absolute errors1.6857
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Fidelity California Municipal. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Fidelity California. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Fidelity California

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelity California. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.1412.4112.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.1012.3712.64
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fidelity California. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fidelity California's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fidelity California's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fidelity California.

Other Forecasting Options for Fidelity California

For every potential investor in Fidelity, whether a beginner or expert, Fidelity California's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fidelity Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fidelity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fidelity California's price trends.

Fidelity California Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fidelity California mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fidelity California could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fidelity California by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fidelity California Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fidelity California's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fidelity California's current price.

Fidelity California Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fidelity California mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fidelity California shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fidelity California mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Fidelity California Municipal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fidelity California Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fidelity California's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fidelity California's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fidelity mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Fidelity Mutual Fund

Fidelity California financial ratios help investors to determine whether Fidelity Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Fidelity with respect to the benefits of owning Fidelity California security.
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