Famous Brands Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FBR Stock   6,970  118.00  1.72%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Famous Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 6,987 with a mean absolute deviation of 80.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,750. Famous Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Famous Brands stock prices and determine the direction of Famous Brands's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Famous Brands' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Famous Brands - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Famous Brands prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Famous Brands price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Famous Brands.

Famous Brands Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Famous Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 6,987 with a mean absolute deviation of 80.51, mean absolute percentage error of 9,870, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,750.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Famous Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Famous Brands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Famous Brands Stock Forecast Pattern

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Famous Brands Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Famous Brands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Famous Brands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6,985 and 6,988, respectively. We have considered Famous Brands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6,970
6,987
Expected Value
6,988
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Famous Brands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Famous Brands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 13.2903
MADMean absolute deviation80.5139
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0123
SAESum of the absolute errors4750.3217
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Famous Brands observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Famous Brands observations.

Predictive Modules for Famous Brands

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Famous Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6,9696,9706,971
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6,2737,9927,993
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Famous Brands

For every potential investor in Famous, whether a beginner or expert, Famous Brands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Famous Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Famous. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Famous Brands' price trends.

Famous Brands Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Famous Brands stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Famous Brands could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Famous Brands by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Famous Brands Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Famous Brands' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Famous Brands' current price.

Famous Brands Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Famous Brands stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Famous Brands shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Famous Brands stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Famous Brands entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Famous Brands Risk Indicators

The analysis of Famous Brands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Famous Brands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting famous stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Famous Stock

Famous Brands financial ratios help investors to determine whether Famous Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Famous with respect to the benefits of owning Famous Brands security.