Esta Multi Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ESTA Stock  IDR 82.00  1.00  1.23%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Esta Multi Usaha on the next trading day is expected to be 82.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.21. Esta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Esta Multi is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Esta Multi Usaha value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Esta Multi Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Esta Multi Usaha on the next trading day is expected to be 82.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05, mean absolute percentage error of 2.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Esta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Esta Multi's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Esta Multi Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Esta MultiEsta Multi Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Esta Multi Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Esta Multi's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Esta Multi's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 81.22 and 84.49, respectively. We have considered Esta Multi's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
82.00
82.86
Expected Value
84.49
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Esta Multi stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Esta Multi stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.8165
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0525
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.011
SAESum of the absolute errors64.2051
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Esta Multi Usaha. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Esta Multi. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Esta Multi

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Esta Multi Usaha. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
80.3682.0083.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
71.8673.5090.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
81.9384.6087.27
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Esta Multi

For every potential investor in Esta, whether a beginner or expert, Esta Multi's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Esta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Esta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Esta Multi's price trends.

Esta Multi Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Esta Multi stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Esta Multi could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Esta Multi by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Esta Multi Usaha Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Esta Multi's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Esta Multi's current price.

Esta Multi Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Esta Multi stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Esta Multi shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Esta Multi stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Esta Multi Usaha entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Esta Multi Risk Indicators

The analysis of Esta Multi's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Esta Multi's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting esta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Esta Stock

Esta Multi financial ratios help investors to determine whether Esta Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Esta with respect to the benefits of owning Esta Multi security.