Elbit Systems Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

ESLT Stock  USD 310.99  5.25  1.72%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Elbit Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 307.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 276.09. Elbit Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Inventory Turnover is likely to gain to 3.15 in 2025. Payables Turnover is likely to gain to 5.91 in 2025. Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 43.3 M in 2025. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 174.6 M in 2025.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Elbit Systems is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Elbit Systems 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Elbit Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 307.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.84, mean absolute percentage error of 38.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 276.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Elbit Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Elbit Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Elbit Systems Stock Forecast Pattern

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Elbit Systems Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Elbit Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Elbit Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 306.25 and 309.18, respectively. We have considered Elbit Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
310.99
306.25
Downside
307.71
Expected Value
309.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elbit Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elbit Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.417
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -2.6621
MADMean absolute deviation4.8436
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0169
SAESum of the absolute errors276.0875
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Elbit Systems. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Elbit Systems and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Elbit Systems

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elbit Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
310.16311.63313.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
304.25305.72342.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
292.75302.62312.49
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
240.30264.07293.11
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Elbit Systems

For every potential investor in Elbit, whether a beginner or expert, Elbit Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Elbit Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Elbit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Elbit Systems' price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Elbit Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Elbit Systems' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Elbit Systems' current price.

Elbit Systems Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Elbit Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Elbit Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Elbit Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Elbit Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Elbit Systems Risk Indicators

The analysis of Elbit Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Elbit Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting elbit stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Additional Tools for Elbit Stock Analysis

When running Elbit Systems' price analysis, check to measure Elbit Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Elbit Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Elbit Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Elbit Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Elbit Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Elbit Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.