Engro Poly Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| EPCLPS Stock | 11.72 0.61 5.49% |
Engro |
Engro Poly Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Engro Poly on the next trading day is expected to be 11.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Engro Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Engro Poly's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Engro Poly Stock Forecast Pattern
Engro Poly Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Engro Poly's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Engro Poly's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.29 and 14.78, respectively. We have considered Engro Poly's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Engro Poly stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Engro Poly stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4081 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2122 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0192 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.9437 |
Predictive Modules for Engro Poly
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Engro Poly. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Engro Poly
For every potential investor in Engro, whether a beginner or expert, Engro Poly's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Engro Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Engro. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Engro Poly's price trends.Engro Poly Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Engro Poly stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Engro Poly could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Engro Poly by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Engro Poly Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Engro Poly's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Engro Poly's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Engro Poly Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Engro Poly stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Engro Poly shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Engro Poly stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Engro Poly entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Engro Poly Risk Indicators
The analysis of Engro Poly's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Engro Poly's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting engro stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.62 | |||
| Variance | 13.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.74) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Engro Poly
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Engro Poly position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Engro Poly will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Engro Poly could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Engro Poly when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Engro Poly - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Engro Poly to buy it.
The correlation of Engro Poly is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Engro Poly moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Engro Poly moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Engro Poly can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.