Enerjisa Enerji Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

ENJSA Stock  TRY 59.70  0.35  0.59%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Enerjisa Enerji AS on the next trading day is expected to be 59.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.30. Enerjisa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Enerjisa Enerji's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Enerjisa Enerji simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Enerjisa Enerji AS are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Enerjisa Enerji AS prices get older.

Enerjisa Enerji Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Enerjisa Enerji AS on the next trading day is expected to be 59.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.89, mean absolute percentage error of 1.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Enerjisa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Enerjisa Enerji's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Enerjisa Enerji Stock Forecast Pattern

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Enerjisa Enerji Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Enerjisa Enerji's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Enerjisa Enerji's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 57.73 and 61.67, respectively. We have considered Enerjisa Enerji's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
59.70
59.70
Expected Value
61.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Enerjisa Enerji stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Enerjisa Enerji stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.4792
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.01
MADMean absolute deviation0.8883
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0155
SAESum of the absolute errors53.3
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Enerjisa Enerji AS forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Enerjisa Enerji observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Enerjisa Enerji

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Enerjisa Enerji AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
57.7359.7061.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
47.6449.6165.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Enerjisa Enerji. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Enerjisa Enerji's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Enerjisa Enerji's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Enerjisa Enerji AS.

Other Forecasting Options for Enerjisa Enerji

For every potential investor in Enerjisa, whether a beginner or expert, Enerjisa Enerji's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Enerjisa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Enerjisa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Enerjisa Enerji's price trends.

Enerjisa Enerji Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Enerjisa Enerji stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Enerjisa Enerji could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Enerjisa Enerji by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Enerjisa Enerji AS Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Enerjisa Enerji's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Enerjisa Enerji's current price.

Enerjisa Enerji Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Enerjisa Enerji stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Enerjisa Enerji shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Enerjisa Enerji stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Enerjisa Enerji AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Enerjisa Enerji Risk Indicators

The analysis of Enerjisa Enerji's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Enerjisa Enerji's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting enerjisa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Other Information on Investing in Enerjisa Stock

Enerjisa Enerji financial ratios help investors to determine whether Enerjisa Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Enerjisa with respect to the benefits of owning Enerjisa Enerji security.