The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Emergent Health Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.001 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.000071 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. Emergent Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Emergent Health stock prices and determine the direction of Emergent Health Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Emergent Health's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Emergent
A naive forecasting model for Emergent Health is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Emergent Health Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Emergent Health Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Emergent Health Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.001 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.000071, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Emergent Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Emergent Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
In the context of forecasting Emergent Health's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Emergent Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.000009 and 12.45, respectively. We have considered Emergent Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Emergent Health pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Emergent Health pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AIC
Akaike Information Criteria
99.3218
Bias
Arithmetic mean of the errors
None
MAD
Mean absolute deviation
1.0E-4
MAPE
Mean absolute percentage error
0.0795
SAE
Sum of the absolute errors
0.0043
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Emergent Health Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Emergent Health. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.
Predictive Modules for Emergent Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Emergent Health Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Emergent Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Emergent Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Emergent Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Emergent Health Corp.
Other Forecasting Options for Emergent Health
For every potential investor in Emergent, whether a beginner or expert, Emergent Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Emergent Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Emergent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Emergent Health's price trends.
Emergent Health Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Emergent Health's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Emergent Health's current price.
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Emergent Health pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Emergent Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Emergent Health pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Emergent Health Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
The analysis of Emergent Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Emergent Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting emergent pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Emergent Pink Sheet
Emergent Health financial ratios help investors to determine whether Emergent Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Emergent with respect to the benefits of owning Emergent Health security.