Elfun International Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

A four-period moving average forecast model for Elfun International Equity is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Elfun International 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Elfun International Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 26.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.91.

Elfun International Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Elfun International

Elfun International Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Elfun International Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elfun International mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elfun International mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Elfun International. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Elfun International Equity and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Elfun International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elfun International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 25.47 26.29 27.11 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 25.65 26.47 27.29 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Elfun International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Elfun International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Elfun International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Elfun International.

Other Forecasting Options for Elfun International

For every potential investor in Elfun, whether a beginner or expert, Elfun International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Elfun Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Elfun. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Elfun International's price trends.

Elfun International Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Elfun International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Elfun International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Elfun International's current price.

Elfun International Market Strength Events

Elfun International Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Elfun Mutual Fund