Eczacibasi Yatirim Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ECZYT Stock  TRY 202.50  0.80  0.39%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eczacibasi Yatirim Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 201.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 210.74. Eczacibasi Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Eczacibasi Yatirim's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Eczacibasi Yatirim - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Eczacibasi Yatirim prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Eczacibasi Yatirim price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Eczacibasi Yatirim.

Eczacibasi Yatirim Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eczacibasi Yatirim Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 201.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.57, mean absolute percentage error of 25.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 210.74.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eczacibasi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eczacibasi Yatirim's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Eczacibasi Yatirim Stock Forecast Pattern

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Eczacibasi Yatirim Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Eczacibasi Yatirim's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eczacibasi Yatirim's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 199.13 and 204.28, respectively. We have considered Eczacibasi Yatirim's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
202.50
199.13
Downside
201.71
Expected Value
204.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eczacibasi Yatirim stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eczacibasi Yatirim stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.2908
MADMean absolute deviation3.5718
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0185
SAESum of the absolute errors210.7354
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Eczacibasi Yatirim observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Eczacibasi Yatirim Holding observations.

Predictive Modules for Eczacibasi Yatirim

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eczacibasi Yatirim. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eczacibasi Yatirim's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
199.93202.50205.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
164.02166.59222.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
197.34202.95208.56
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Eczacibasi Yatirim

For every potential investor in Eczacibasi, whether a beginner or expert, Eczacibasi Yatirim's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eczacibasi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eczacibasi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eczacibasi Yatirim's price trends.

Eczacibasi Yatirim Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eczacibasi Yatirim stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eczacibasi Yatirim could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eczacibasi Yatirim by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Eczacibasi Yatirim Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eczacibasi Yatirim's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eczacibasi Yatirim's current price.

Eczacibasi Yatirim Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eczacibasi Yatirim stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eczacibasi Yatirim shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eczacibasi Yatirim stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eczacibasi Yatirim Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Eczacibasi Yatirim Risk Indicators

The analysis of Eczacibasi Yatirim's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eczacibasi Yatirim's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eczacibasi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Other Information on Investing in Eczacibasi Stock

Eczacibasi Yatirim financial ratios help investors to determine whether Eczacibasi Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Eczacibasi with respect to the benefits of owning Eczacibasi Yatirim security.