US Dollar Index Forecast - Simple Moving Average

DXY Index   108.92  0.03  0.03%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of US Dollar Currency on the next trading day is expected to be 108.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.18. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast US Dollar's index prices and determine the direction of US Dollar Currency's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
A two period moving average forecast for US Dollar is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

US Dollar Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 7th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of US Dollar Currency on the next trading day is expected to be 108.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.18.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DXY Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that US Dollar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

US Dollar Index Forecast Pattern

US Dollar Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting US Dollar's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. US Dollar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 108.52 and 109.35, respectively. We have considered US Dollar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
108.92
108.52
Downside
108.94
Expected Value
109.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of US Dollar index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent US Dollar index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.9548
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1527
MADMean absolute deviation0.3759
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0035
SAESum of the absolute errors22.18
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of US Dollar Currency price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of US Dollar. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for US Dollar

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US Dollar Currency. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for US Dollar

For every potential investor in DXY, whether a beginner or expert, US Dollar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DXY Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DXY. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying US Dollar's price trends.

US Dollar Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with US Dollar index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of US Dollar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing US Dollar by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

US Dollar Currency Technical and Predictive Analytics

The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of US Dollar's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of US Dollar's current price.

US Dollar Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how US Dollar index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading US Dollar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying US Dollar index market strength indicators, traders can identify US Dollar Currency entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

US Dollar Risk Indicators

The analysis of US Dollar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in US Dollar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dxy index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.