Moodys Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

DUT Stock  EUR 441.70  7.50  1.67%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Moodys on the next trading day is expected to be 469.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 574.67. Moodys Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Moodys' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Moodys price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Moodys Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Moodys on the next trading day is expected to be 469.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.42, mean absolute percentage error of 149.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 574.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moodys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moodys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Moodys Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest MoodysMoodys Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Moodys Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Moodys' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Moodys' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 467.63 and 471.17, respectively. We have considered Moodys' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
441.70
467.63
Downside
469.40
Expected Value
471.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moodys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moodys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.1192
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation9.4207
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0211
SAESum of the absolute errors574.6654
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Moodys historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Moodys

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moodys. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
439.93441.70443.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
397.53444.52446.29
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Moodys

For every potential investor in Moodys, whether a beginner or expert, Moodys' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moodys Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moodys. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moodys' price trends.

Moodys Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Moodys stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Moodys could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Moodys by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Moodys Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Moodys' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Moodys' current price.

Moodys Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Moodys stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Moodys shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Moodys stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Moodys entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Moodys Risk Indicators

The analysis of Moodys' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moodys' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting moodys stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Moodys Stock

When determining whether Moodys offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Moodys' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Moodys Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Moodys Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moodys to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Moodys Stock please use our How to Invest in Moodys guide.
You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moodys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Moodys is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moodys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.