Bright Minds Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DRUG Stock | USD 44.00 4.82 12.30% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bright Minds Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 57.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 259.85. Bright Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bright Minds' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Bright |
Bright Minds Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Bright Minds' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 7.8 M | Current Value 8.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 6 M |
Bright Minds Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bright Minds Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 57.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.19, mean absolute percentage error of 33.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 259.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bright Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bright Minds' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bright Minds Stock Forecast Pattern
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Bright Minds Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bright Minds' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bright Minds' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.44 and 185.61, respectively. We have considered Bright Minds' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bright Minds stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bright Minds stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.4508 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.1911 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 1.617 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 259.8492 |
Predictive Modules for Bright Minds
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bright Minds Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bright Minds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Bright Minds
For every potential investor in Bright, whether a beginner or expert, Bright Minds' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bright Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bright. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bright Minds' price trends.View Bright Minds Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bright Minds Biosciences Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bright Minds' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bright Minds' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Bright Minds Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bright Minds stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bright Minds shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bright Minds stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bright Minds Biosciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bright Minds Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bright Minds' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bright Minds' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bright stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 49.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 179.02 | |||
| Variance | 32047.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 68.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 20.04 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (55.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Bright Minds Biosciences is a strong investment it is important to analyze Bright Minds' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Bright Minds' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Bright Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bright Minds to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bright Minds. If investors know Bright will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bright Minds listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.63) | Return On Assets (0.29) | Return On Equity (0.52) |
The market value of Bright Minds Biosciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bright that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bright Minds' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bright Minds' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bright Minds' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bright Minds' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bright Minds' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bright Minds is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bright Minds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.