VanEck Defense Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DFEN Etf | 34.60 0.13 0.38% |
VanEck |
VanEck Defense Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VanEck Defense ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 34.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VanEck Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VanEck Defense's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VanEck Defense Etf Forecast Pattern
VanEck Defense Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VanEck Defense's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VanEck Defense's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.16 and 36.04, respectively. We have considered VanEck Defense's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VanEck Defense etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VanEck Defense etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0122 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0598 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3832 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.011 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.99 |
Predictive Modules for VanEck Defense
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Defense ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for VanEck Defense
For every potential investor in VanEck, whether a beginner or expert, VanEck Defense's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VanEck Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VanEck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VanEck Defense's price trends.VanEck Defense Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VanEck Defense etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VanEck Defense could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VanEck Defense by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VanEck Defense ETF Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of VanEck Defense's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of VanEck Defense's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VanEck Defense Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VanEck Defense etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VanEck Defense shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VanEck Defense etf market strength indicators, traders can identify VanEck Defense ETF entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
VanEck Defense Risk Indicators
The analysis of VanEck Defense's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VanEck Defense's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaneck etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.11 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.96) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.