DCI Indonesia Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

DCII Stock  IDR 116,125  19,350  19.99%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of DCI Indonesia Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 146,347 with a mean absolute deviation of 2,560 and the sum of the absolute errors of 156,176. DCI Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for DCI Indonesia is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of DCI Indonesia Tbk value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

DCI Indonesia Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of DCI Indonesia Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 146,347 with a mean absolute deviation of 2,560, mean absolute percentage error of 17,122,514, and the sum of the absolute errors of 156,176.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DCI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DCI Indonesia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

DCI Indonesia Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest DCI IndonesiaDCI Indonesia Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

DCI Indonesia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting DCI Indonesia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DCI Indonesia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 146,340 and 146,353, respectively. We have considered DCI Indonesia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
116,125
146,340
Downside
146,347
Expected Value
146,353
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DCI Indonesia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DCI Indonesia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria134.7664
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2560.2674
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.046
SAESum of the absolute errors156176.3114
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of DCI Indonesia Tbk. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict DCI Indonesia. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for DCI Indonesia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DCI Indonesia Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
116,119116,125116,131
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
81,79481,800127,738
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11,31865,036118,755
Details

Other Forecasting Options for DCI Indonesia

For every potential investor in DCI, whether a beginner or expert, DCI Indonesia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DCI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DCI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DCI Indonesia's price trends.

DCI Indonesia Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DCI Indonesia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DCI Indonesia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DCI Indonesia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

DCI Indonesia Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of DCI Indonesia's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of DCI Indonesia's current price.

DCI Indonesia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DCI Indonesia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DCI Indonesia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DCI Indonesia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DCI Indonesia Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

DCI Indonesia Risk Indicators

The analysis of DCI Indonesia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DCI Indonesia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dci stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in DCI Stock

DCI Indonesia financial ratios help investors to determine whether DCI Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in DCI with respect to the benefits of owning DCI Indonesia security.