DocuSign Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

D1OC34 Stock  BRL 29.58  0.60  2.07%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DocuSign on the next trading day is expected to be 29.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.31. DocuSign Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast DocuSign stock prices and determine the direction of DocuSign's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of DocuSign's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for DocuSign - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When DocuSign prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in DocuSign price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of DocuSign.

DocuSign Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DocuSign on the next trading day is expected to be 29.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 1.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.31.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DocuSign Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DocuSign's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

DocuSign Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest DocuSignDocuSign Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

DocuSign Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting DocuSign's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DocuSign's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.40 and 34.09, respectively. We have considered DocuSign's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
29.58
29.75
Expected Value
34.09
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DocuSign stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DocuSign stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1933
MADMean absolute deviation0.6494
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0268
SAESum of the absolute errors38.3147
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past DocuSign observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older DocuSign observations.

Predictive Modules for DocuSign

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DocuSign. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.6428.9833.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.2531.5935.93
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as DocuSign. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against DocuSign's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, DocuSign's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in DocuSign.

Other Forecasting Options for DocuSign

For every potential investor in DocuSign, whether a beginner or expert, DocuSign's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DocuSign Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DocuSign. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DocuSign's price trends.

DocuSign Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DocuSign stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DocuSign could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DocuSign by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

DocuSign Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of DocuSign's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of DocuSign's current price.

DocuSign Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DocuSign stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DocuSign shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DocuSign stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DocuSign entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

DocuSign Risk Indicators

The analysis of DocuSign's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DocuSign's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting docusign stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in DocuSign Stock

When determining whether DocuSign is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if DocuSign Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Docusign Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Docusign Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DocuSign to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade DocuSign Stock refer to our How to Trade DocuSign Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Please note, there is a significant difference between DocuSign's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if DocuSign is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, DocuSign's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.