Companhia Tecidos Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

CTSA3 Stock  BRL 1.51  0.04  2.58%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Companhia Tecidos Santanense on the next trading day is expected to be 1.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.23. Companhia Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Companhia Tecidos works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Companhia Tecidos Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Companhia Tecidos Santanense on the next trading day is expected to be 1.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Companhia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Companhia Tecidos' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Companhia Tecidos Stock Forecast Pattern

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Companhia Tecidos Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Companhia Tecidos' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Companhia Tecidos' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 3.90, respectively. We have considered Companhia Tecidos' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.51
1.49
Expected Value
3.90
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Companhia Tecidos stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Companhia Tecidos stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0062
MADMean absolute deviation0.0378
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.019
SAESum of the absolute errors2.2277
When Companhia Tecidos Santanense prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Companhia Tecidos Santanense trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Companhia Tecidos observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Companhia Tecidos

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Companhia Tecidos. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.081.513.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.071.453.90
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Companhia Tecidos. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Companhia Tecidos' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Companhia Tecidos' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Companhia Tecidos.

Other Forecasting Options for Companhia Tecidos

For every potential investor in Companhia, whether a beginner or expert, Companhia Tecidos' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Companhia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Companhia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Companhia Tecidos' price trends.

Companhia Tecidos Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Companhia Tecidos stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Companhia Tecidos could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Companhia Tecidos by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Companhia Tecidos Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Companhia Tecidos' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Companhia Tecidos' current price.

Companhia Tecidos Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Companhia Tecidos stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Companhia Tecidos shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Companhia Tecidos stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Companhia Tecidos Santanense entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Companhia Tecidos Risk Indicators

The analysis of Companhia Tecidos' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Companhia Tecidos' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting companhia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Companhia Stock Analysis

When running Companhia Tecidos' price analysis, check to measure Companhia Tecidos' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Companhia Tecidos is operating at the current time. Most of Companhia Tecidos' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Companhia Tecidos' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Companhia Tecidos' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Companhia Tecidos to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.