Cronos Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CRON Stock  CAD 2.84  0.02  0.70%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cronos Group on the next trading day is expected to be 2.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.92. Cronos Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Cronos' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Cronos' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cronos fundamentals over time.
  
As of the 28th of December 2024, Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to 2.59. Also, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 6.52. As of the 28th of December 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 233.2 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to grow to about (144.3 M).
A naive forecasting model for Cronos is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Cronos Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Cronos Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cronos Group on the next trading day is expected to be 2.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cronos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cronos' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cronos Stock Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Oct 10Oct 21Oct 29Nov 6Nov 14Nov 22Dec 2Dec 10Dec 18Dec 28Next 62.82.93.03.1
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Cronos Group Cronos Group forecast
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Cronos Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cronos' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cronos' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 6.00, respectively. We have considered Cronos' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.84
2.86
Expected Value
6.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cronos stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cronos stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.0502
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0643
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.022
SAESum of the absolute errors3.9237
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Cronos Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Cronos. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Cronos

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cronos Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.142.845.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.122.425.56
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.07-0.07-0.07
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Cronos

For every potential investor in Cronos, whether a beginner or expert, Cronos' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cronos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cronos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cronos' price trends.

Cronos Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cronos stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cronos could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cronos by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cronos Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cronos' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cronos' current price.

Cronos Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cronos stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cronos shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cronos stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cronos Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cronos Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cronos' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cronos' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cronos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
When determining whether Cronos Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Cronos' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cronos Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cronos Group Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cronos to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cronos' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cronos is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cronos' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.