Chongqing Rural Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CRCBY Stock  USD 27.08  3.60  15.33%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chongqing Rural Commercial on the next trading day is expected to be 26.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.51. Chongqing Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Chongqing Rural - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Chongqing Rural prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Chongqing Rural price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Chongqing Rural Comm.

Chongqing Rural Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chongqing Rural Commercial on the next trading day is expected to be 26.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79, mean absolute percentage error of 3.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chongqing Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chongqing Rural's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Chongqing Rural Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Chongqing RuralChongqing Rural Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Chongqing Rural Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Chongqing Rural's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chongqing Rural's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.91 and 35.67, respectively. We have considered Chongqing Rural's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.08
26.79
Expected Value
35.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chongqing Rural pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chongqing Rural pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2276
MADMean absolute deviation0.7883
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0321
SAESum of the absolute errors46.5107
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Chongqing Rural observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Chongqing Rural Commercial observations.

Predictive Modules for Chongqing Rural

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chongqing Rural Comm. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.2027.0835.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.3525.2334.11
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
16.7024.8833.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Chongqing Rural. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Chongqing Rural's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Chongqing Rural's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Chongqing Rural Comm.

Other Forecasting Options for Chongqing Rural

For every potential investor in Chongqing, whether a beginner or expert, Chongqing Rural's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chongqing Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chongqing. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chongqing Rural's price trends.

Chongqing Rural Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chongqing Rural pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chongqing Rural could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chongqing Rural by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Chongqing Rural Comm Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Chongqing Rural's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Chongqing Rural's current price.

Chongqing Rural Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chongqing Rural pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chongqing Rural shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chongqing Rural pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Chongqing Rural Commercial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Chongqing Rural Risk Indicators

The analysis of Chongqing Rural's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chongqing Rural's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chongqing pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Chongqing Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Chongqing Rural's price analysis, check to measure Chongqing Rural's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chongqing Rural is operating at the current time. Most of Chongqing Rural's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chongqing Rural's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chongqing Rural's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chongqing Rural to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.