Cairo Oils Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

COSG Stock   0.26  0.01  4.00%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Cairo Oils Soap on the next trading day is expected to be 0.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.30. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Cairo Oils' stock prices and determine the direction of Cairo Oils Soap's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Cairo Oils' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Cairo Oils Soap is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Cairo Oils 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Cairo Oils Soap on the next trading day is expected to be 0.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000051, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cairo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cairo Oils' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cairo Oils Stock Forecast Pattern

Cairo Oils Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cairo Oils' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cairo Oils' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 3.18, respectively. We have considered Cairo Oils' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.26
0.26
Expected Value
3.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cairo Oils stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cairo Oils stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria100.8836
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0013
MADMean absolute deviation0.0053
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0217
SAESum of the absolute errors0.3025
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Cairo Oils. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Cairo Oils Soap and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Cairo Oils

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cairo Oils Soap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Cairo Oils

For every potential investor in Cairo, whether a beginner or expert, Cairo Oils' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cairo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cairo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cairo Oils' price trends.

Cairo Oils Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cairo Oils stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cairo Oils could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cairo Oils by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cairo Oils Soap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cairo Oils' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cairo Oils' current price.

Cairo Oils Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cairo Oils stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cairo Oils shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cairo Oils stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cairo Oils Soap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cairo Oils Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cairo Oils' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cairo Oils' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cairo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.