Congress Mid Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CMIDX Fund  USD 26.40  0.04  0.15%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Congress Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 26.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.78. Congress Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Congress Mid simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Congress Mid Cap are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Congress Mid Cap prices get older.

Congress Mid Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Congress Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 26.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Congress Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Congress Mid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Congress Mid Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Congress Mid Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Congress Mid's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Congress Mid's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.48 and 27.32, respectively. We have considered Congress Mid's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
26.40
26.40
Expected Value
27.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Congress Mid mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Congress Mid mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.4377
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.029
MADMean absolute deviation0.1797
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.007
SAESum of the absolute errors10.78
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Congress Mid Cap forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Congress Mid observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Congress Mid

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Congress Mid Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Congress Mid's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.4826.4027.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.3226.2427.16
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Congress Mid

For every potential investor in Congress, whether a beginner or expert, Congress Mid's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Congress Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Congress. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Congress Mid's price trends.

Congress Mid Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Congress Mid mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Congress Mid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Congress Mid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Congress Mid Cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Congress Mid's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Congress Mid's current price.

Congress Mid Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Congress Mid mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Congress Mid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Congress Mid mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Congress Mid Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Congress Mid Risk Indicators

The analysis of Congress Mid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Congress Mid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting congress mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Congress Mutual Fund

Congress Mid financial ratios help investors to determine whether Congress Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Congress with respect to the benefits of owning Congress Mid security.
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