JPMorgan Chase Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

CMC Stock  EUR 227.85  2.65  1.18%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of JPMorgan Chase Co on the next trading day is expected to be 227.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 147.02. JPMorgan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of JPMorgan Chase's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A two period moving average forecast for JPMorgan Chase is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

JPMorgan Chase Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of JPMorgan Chase Co on the next trading day is expected to be 227.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.49, mean absolute percentage error of 19.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 147.02.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JPMorgan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JPMorgan Chase's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

JPMorgan Chase Stock Forecast Pattern

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JPMorgan Chase Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting JPMorgan Chase's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JPMorgan Chase's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 225.77 and 229.93, respectively. We have considered JPMorgan Chase's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
227.85
225.77
Downside
227.85
Expected Value
229.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JPMorgan Chase stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JPMorgan Chase stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.4091
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.0477
MADMean absolute deviation2.4919
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0113
SAESum of the absolute errors147.025
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of JPMorgan Chase Co price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of JPMorgan Chase. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for JPMorgan Chase

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JPMorgan Chase. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
225.79227.85229.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
205.07257.46259.52
Details

Other Forecasting Options for JPMorgan Chase

For every potential investor in JPMorgan, whether a beginner or expert, JPMorgan Chase's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JPMorgan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JPMorgan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JPMorgan Chase's price trends.

JPMorgan Chase Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JPMorgan Chase stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JPMorgan Chase could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JPMorgan Chase by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

JPMorgan Chase Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of JPMorgan Chase's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of JPMorgan Chase's current price.

JPMorgan Chase Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JPMorgan Chase stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JPMorgan Chase shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JPMorgan Chase stock market strength indicators, traders can identify JPMorgan Chase Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

JPMorgan Chase Risk Indicators

The analysis of JPMorgan Chase's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JPMorgan Chase's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jpmorgan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in JPMorgan Stock

When determining whether JPMorgan Chase is a strong investment it is important to analyze JPMorgan Chase's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact JPMorgan Chase's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding JPMorgan Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JPMorgan Chase to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JPMorgan Chase's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if JPMorgan Chase is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JPMorgan Chase's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.